Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward run on Thursday, holding firmly above the $4,200 mark and securing a five-day winning streak. The metal has now recovered most of its pullback from last week’s record high near $4,381. At the time of writing, spot gold trades around $4,225, gaining nearly 5.5% so far this week as bullish momentum remains strong.
The agreement to end the US government shutdown has not slowed demand for the safe-haven asset. Instead, traders are shifting their attention to the wave of delayed economic data that will be released as federal agencies resume operations. Fresh numbers could revive expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December.
A softer US Dollar and subdued Treasury yields are also supporting the precious metal. Market sentiment remains broadly constructive for Gold, with both macro factors and technical signals pointing to further upside.
Key Drivers: Shutdown resolved; Fed officials urge caution on rate cuts
The historic US government shutdown—ongoing since October 1—officially ended late Wednesday after President Donald Trump signed a temporary funding bill. The House approved the measure with a 222–209 vote, reopening federal agencies through January 30, 2026, and extending funding for several departments until September 30, 2026.
While the resolution reduces immediate fiscal risks, markets remain cautious. Lawmakers face another funding deadline in just a few weeks, raising the possibility of renewed political tension. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries cautioned that the fight “is not over,” adding that Republicans face pressure to preserve Affordable Care Act tax credits or face political fallout.
Federal Reserve officials also delivered comments that cooled expectations for aggressive easing.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US economy shows signs of “cautious optimism,” but emphasized that inflation remains “stubborn” and that it is still “premature” to commit to a December rate cut. She also noted the labor market has “slowed quite a bit.”
Earlier, Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that policymakers must see clearer evidence of inflation heading sustainably toward 2% before considering more easing. She said the bar for further cuts is “relatively high” and cautioned that additional stimulus could risk delaying inflation’s decline. Collins also noted that tariffs may keep inflation elevated into early 2026.
Following these remarks, traders trimmed their December rate-cut expectations. CME FedWatch data now shows a 53% probability of a cut next month, down from 62% the previous day.
Meanwhile, new projections from Citigroup suggest a wide trading range for gold over the coming years. According to a November 10 report, the bank assigns a 30% chance that gold could hit $6,000 by the end of 2027. Its base-case view, with a 50% probability, sees prices easing toward $3,650 in 2026 if the US economy strengthens.
