The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5655 in early European trading on Tuesday, pressured by renewed speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver another rate cut soon. Market participants now turn their attention to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, followed by the highly anticipated US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
At its October policy meeting, the RBNZ surprised markets with a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point cut, bringing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) down to 2.5%. Policymakers justified the move by pointing to a slowing economy and confidence that inflation is easing. The decision came after New Zealand’s GDP contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2025.
Expectations for further easing continue to weigh on the Kiwi. Data released on Monday reinforced views that the central bank could trim the OCR by another 25 bps next week to 2.25%, with additional cuts still on the table. Major banks—including Westpac, BNZ, ASB, and ANZ—also forecast another 25-bp cut at the November meeting.
Meanwhile, the NZD found some support after US President Donald Trump scrapped tariffs on over 200 New Zealand food exports, including beef, in response to rising grocery costs in the US. The tariff removal—valued at around NZ$2.21 billion ($1.25 billion) annually—may help cushion the Kiwi’s downside.
Looking ahead, the US September NFP report due Thursday will be a key driver for the pair. Economists expect job gains of about 50,000, following August’s 22,000 increase, with the Unemployment Rate likely to remain at 4.3%. A softer-than-forecast reading could put pressure on the US Dollar and offer some relief to NZD/USD.
