The Euro trades around 1.1665 at the time of writing, right where the descending trendline resistance from July 1 converges with last Friday’s high at the 1.6670 area. A confirmation above those levels would signal a trend shift.
In the absence of relevant macroeconomic releases on Monday, the risk sentiment is driving the Euro higher and weighing on the US Dollar. US Treasury yields are accelerating their reversal from last week’s highs, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year note retreating to 10-day lows below 4.40, increasing negative pressure on the USD.
Tariff uncertainty, however, is keeping Euro bulls on the leash. Negotiations between Washington and the European Union (EU) have been underway for several weeks already, with no news to report so far. The US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, affirmed on Sunday that he is confident of reaching a deal. However, US President Trump warned that the August 1 deadline is firm, and the EU is already preparing retaliatory measures in case the talks end without an agreement.
The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision due on Thursday. The bank will most likely leave interest rates unchanged, but President Lagarde’s comments on the economic outlook and the potential impact of tariffs will determine the Euro’s near-term direction.
In the US, investors will keep an eye on corporate earnings. Tech megacaps Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) will release their respective reports later this week, together with other firms like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), which might show increasing revenues boosted by higher defence spending.
